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Hofer, Lorenzo (2018) Loss assessment models for seismic risk mitigation in structures. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract (inglese)

Seismic risk can be defined as an inclusive term that encompasses the probability of different ground motions and the related consequences, depending on the structural vulnerability. Seismic risk analysis is a general procedure that usually can consider different indicators, for both a specific structure or at territorial level: among others, for civil structures, risk is expressed in terms of monetary losses, i.e. costs to be sustained for repairing seismic damage or loss of revenue. This work wants to contribute to the current seismic risk assessment approaches with original contributions to the analysis of both point-like and territorial assets, focusing on some aspects, that are still not or poorly treated in literature. Regarding seismic risk analysis for a single specific structure, this work focuses on seismic risk analysis of industrial productive processes, with particular reference to business interruption losses. Recent seismic events, as the Emilia-Romagna earthquake in 2012, showed that such type of indirect losses can be very significant, and therefore a model is proposed to fill this lack of models for assessing indirect losses due to business interruption. Furthermore, a financial framework is also set up to assess the optimal seismic retrofit strategy for productive processes. In regard to the seismic risk analysis at territorial level, a seismic risk map of Italy is developed. Some considerations on historical losses and the implementation of specific earthquake catastrophe funds is also discussed. Finally, a deep insight on Catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds), as financial tool for transferring potential losses arising from natural hazards is illustrated. In particular, a novel reliability-based CAT bond pricing framework is developed, and applied to a case study represented by the Italian residential building portfolio.

Abstract (italiano)

Il rischio sismico può essere definito come un termine riassuntivo che comprende la probabilità del verificarsi in un certo sito di differenti campi di scuotimento, le perdite correlate, considerando la vulnerabilità strutturale. L’analisi di rischio è un metodo generale che può far riferimento a più indicatori in base al problema indagato, sia a livello di struttura specifica, sia a livello territoriale; per strutture civili, spesso si fa riferimento alle perdite monetarie, cioè il costo che deve essere sostenuto per riparare il danno strutturale derivante dal sisma. Questo lavoro approfondisce il rischio sismico sia a livello locale/puntuale, sia a livello territoriale, focalizzandosi su temi ancora poco approfonditi. A livello locale, la tesi si concentra sull’analisi di rischio sismico in ambito industriale con particolare riferimento ai danni da interruzione di esercizio. Recenti eventi sismici, come il terremoto in Emilia del 2012, hanno infatti dimostrato come tale tipologia di perdite possa essere particolarmente significativa; viene quindi sviluppato un modello per il calcolo delle perdite da interruzione di esercizio. Viene inoltre sviluppato un framework per valutare l’ottima strategia di retrofit sismico per la filiera produttiva. Nell’ambito dello studio del rischio sismico su scala territoriale, viene calcolata la mappa di rischio sismico per il territorio italiano. Vengono poi fatte alcune considerazioni sulle perdite causate dai terremoti passati, e sulla possibile implementazione di un fondo catastrofale nazionale. Infine, questo lavoro approfondisce i Catastrophe bond (CAT bond) come strumento finanziario per il trasferimento del rischio da disastri naturali. In particolare, viene sviluppata una procedura matematica rigorosa, basata su un approccio affidabilistico, per il pricing dei CAT bond. Tale procedura viene quindi applicata ad un caso studio e i risultati sono ampiamente discussi.

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Tipo di EPrint:Tesi di dottorato
Relatore:Pellegrino, Carlo
Correlatore:Zanini, Mariano Angelo
Dottorato (corsi e scuole):Ciclo 30 > Corsi 30 > SCIENZE DELL'INGEGNERIA CIVILE E AMBIENTALE
Data di deposito della tesi:10 Gennaio 2018
Anno di Pubblicazione:10 Gennaio 2018
Parole chiave (italiano / inglese):rischio sismico, business interruption, perdite indirette, mappa rischio sismico Italia, CAT bond, reliability analysis; seismic risk, business interruption, indirect losses, seismic risk map Italy, CAT bond, analisi affidabilità;
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 08 - Ingegneria civile e Architettura > ICAR/09 Tecnica delle costruzioni
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale
Codice ID:10607
Depositato il:26 Ott 2018 09:46
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