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Pizzo, Lara (2009) The impact of economic changes on the italian social welfare: a microsimulation approach. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract (inglese)

This thesis aims at measuring the Italian welfare variation occurred between 2007 and the period January 2008-April 2009. The work has been carried out, using “pseudo” unit values instead of price indices. In particular, the formers are a theoretical result developed by Lewbel (1989) and Atella (Atella, Menon and Perali, 2003) that reproduce the variability of cross sectional price variations using the variability of the budget shares together with the national and provincial price indices.

The study estimates a quadratic demand system demographically modified using a translating term. The parameters estimated have been used for different reasons: the first one is to check the relevance of the “pseudo” unit value specification. This test has been done comparing the results of the model, carried out using “pseudo” unit values, with the outcomes of a demand model implemented using only indices. In particular, the former, presenting compensated own price elasticities that are always negative, results more coherent with the economic theory than the second one that does not present this characteristic. The second reason underlying the estimation of the demand system is to point out the features of the Italian population, highlighting the differences among the Italian macroregions together with the demographic characteristics of the Italian households. Finally, the last basic motive of this estimation is the implementation of the microsimulation model that needs the parameters estimated by the demand system. In particular, this model evaluates the social welfare function, defined using the Jorgenson and Slesnick (1984, 1987, 1990) specification, in the year 2007 and then, using the microsimulation approach, it calculates the welfare during the period January 2008-April 2009. The difference between the level of the two welfare functions has been measured and splitted into an equity measure and an efficiency component. In conclusion, the analysis of these results does not show relevant variations of welfare between the periods considered.

Abstract (italiano)

Questa tesi ha lo scopo di valutare la variazione di benessere che si è verificata tra l’anno 2007 ed il periodo gennaio 2008-aprile 2009. Nello svolgere questo lavoro sono stati usati, in sostituzione degli indici dei prezzi, i cosiddetti “pseudo unit values”. Questi “indici” che sono stati inizialmente definiti da Lewbel (1989) e poi migliorati da Atella (Atella, Menon and Perali, 2003) riproducono la variabilità dei prezzi usando le quote di spesa nonché gli indici dei prezzi nazionali e provinciali.

Il lavoro stima un sistema di domanda quadratico in cui le variabili demografiche sono considerate usando una tecnica di traslazione. Il modello di domanda risulta fondamentale per diverse ragioni. Prima di tutto i parametri stimati vengono usati per valutare l’importanza dell’approccio definito da Lewbel (1989) ed Atella (Atella, Menon and Perali, 2003). Tale valutazione è stato fatta stimando due sistemi di domanda in cui il primo usa i “pseudo unit values” mentre il secondo usa gli indici dei prezzi. Dal confronto tra le elasticità dei prezzi si può notare che il primo sistema fornisce delle elasticità dirette sempre negative mentre l’altro no. Per tale ragione l’approccio di Lewbel ed Atella risulta più coerente con la teoria economica del secondo. I parametri del sistema, sono stati usati, inoltre, per valutare le differenze di spesa tra le diverse macroregioni italiane nonché le caratteristiche delle famiglie. L’ultima ragione che ha portato alla stima del sistema è legata al modello di microsimulazione. Questi parametri sono infatti fondamentali per l’implementazione del suddetto. Nel dettaglio, il modello di benessere valuta la funzione di benessere sociale, creata da Jorgenson and Slesnick (1984, 1987, 1990), nel 2007 e la confronta con il suo valore, ottenuto attraverso il modello di microsimulazione, del periodo compreso tra gennaio 2008 ed aprile 2009. Dalla differenza tra questi due valori della funzione è possibile valutare la variazione di benessere. Tale variazione viene inoltre suddivisa in una misura di efficienza ed una misura di equità. Concludendo, dall’analisi di questi dati non si registrano significative variazioni nel benessere della popolazione italiana durante i due periodi.

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Tipo di EPrint:Tesi di dottorato
Relatore:Perali, Federico - Boatto, Vasco
Dottorato (corsi e scuole):Ciclo 21 > Scuole per il 21simo ciclo > TERRITORIO, AMBIENTE, RISORSE E SALUTE > ECONOMIA
Data di deposito della tesi:NON SPECIFICATO
Anno di Pubblicazione:30 Luglio 2009
Parole chiave (italiano / inglese):UNIT VALUES, DEMAND ANALYSIS, SOCIAL WELFARE
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/01 Economia ed estimo rurale
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali
Codice ID:2161
Depositato il:10 Mar 2010 11:01
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