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Tromboni, Flavia (2011) Integrated hydrologic-economic model for sustainable water resources management in front of climate change. The Tunuyán River basin and the Piave River Basin case studies. [Ph.D. thesis]

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Abstract (english)

Abstract
The research carried out investigated the structure of the complex system composed by hydrological, economic and climatic variables, with the aim of sustainable water management modelling.
Two case studies (the Tunuyán River Basin and Piave River Basin) were investigated, applying different methodologies for data analysis, due to the diverse management objectives and specific site characteristics.
In the Tunuyán River Basin case study a correlation analysis on time series data of annual grape yields, sugar rate, monthly temperatures and precipitations was carried on, in order to individuate possible relations between them. Strong correlations were found between annual grape yield and minimum temperature of June, minimum temperature of July, maximum temperature of January, maximum temperature of October and the PVC index of precipitations. Correlations were strong also between sugar rate in grape and minimum temperature of July, minimum temperature of November, Minimum temperature of December, Maximum temperature of February, Maximum temperature of November and the PVC index. A multi-linear regression analysis was then applied to data in order to quantify those relations.
A Mann Kendall analysis was applied on time series of meteorological data and the Tunuyán River up flow discharge, to detect significant trends. Significant positive trends were identified on the total annual river flow and on mostly monthly river flows except for July, August, September and December monthly flows, which trends were not significant.
The optimum area to be sustainable irrigated with a 12” pump, energy requirements and energy cost for water extraction were estimated using data available from pumping tests. Irrigation water demand as total crop water requirements was estimated using the FAO Penman-Monteith formula.
Energy cost variations were examined to evaluate the economic impact of climate warming. The cultivated area increase rate (as a consequence of economic development) was also considered.
Finally, all variables were integrated in a whole dynamic system model written in Vensim, to analyse the dynamic of the entire system through time. The objective formula of the integrated model is the maximisation of net benefit minimizing water use.
In the Piave River Basin case study a Mann-Kendall trend analysis was carried on to detect trends in time series of monthly precipitations. Significant trends were indentified identified only in September precipitations.
An optimization model written in GAMS was applied to estimate the cultivation pattern for optimum water allocation.

Abstract (italian)

Abstract
La ricerca ha analizzato la sruttura del sistema complesso costitutio da variabili idrologiche, economiche e climatiche, con l’obbiettivo della modellazioneper la gestione sostenibile delle risorce idriche.
Due casi studi sono stati approfonditi, il bacino del fiume Tunuyan (Mendoza, Argentina) e il bacino del fiume Piave (Italia). Diverse metodologie di analisi dei dati sono state applicate, a causa di diversi obbiettivi gestionali e seconda della caratteristiche specifiche di ciascuna zona.
Nel caso studio del bacino del fiume Tunuyan è stata condotta un’analisi di correlazione tra serie storiche di dati di produzione di uva, tenore zuccherino nell’uva, temperature mensili di precipitazioni, con l’obbiettivo di identificare possibili relazioni tra le variabili. Forti correlazioni sono state identificate tra produzione annuale di uva e temperatura minima di Giugno, temperatura minima di Luglio, temperatura minima di Novembre, temperatura minima di dicembre, temperatura massima di febbraio, temperatura massima di Novembre e l’indice PVC di precipitazioni. Un’analisi di regressione lineare multipla è infine stata applicata ai dati per quantificare tali relazioni.
L’analisi delle tendenze delle serie storiche di dati meteorologici e di portata del fiume Tunuyán è stata condotta attraverso il test non parametrico Mann Kendall, che ha permesso di valutare le tendenze significative. Tendenze positive sono state identificate nella portata a monte totale e in quasi tutte le serie storiche delle portate mensili, tranne per Luglio, Agosto, Settembre e Dicembre, le cui tendenze sono risultate non significative.
L’area di irrigazione ottimale con una pompa di estrazione di 12” ,le necessità energetiche e i costi di estrazione dell’acqua sotterranea sono stati calcolati attraverso i dati disponibili da test di pompaggio condotti dall’INA (Istituto Nacional del Agua di Mendoza). La domanda irrigua, calcolata come necessità idriche delle colture è stata stimata usando la formula FAO Penman-Monteith.
Le variazioni nei costi sono state esaminate per valutare i possibili impatti del riscaldamento globale. L’incremento di area coltivata come conseguenza dello sviluppo economico è stato preso in considerazione.
Infine tutte le variabili sono state integrate in un modello olisitco scritto in Vensim, con l’obbiettivo di analizzare la dinamica dell’intero sistema nel tempo. La formula obbiettivo del modello integrato è la massimizzazione dei profitti minimizzando l’utilizzo di risorsa idrica.
Nel caso studio del bacino del Piave un’analisi di tendenza Mann-Kendall è stata condotta per individuare le tendenza nelle serie storiche di dati di precipitazione. Tendenze positive sono state identificate solo nelle precipitazioni di Settembre.
Un modello di ottimizzazione scritto in GAMS è stato infine applicato per stimare il pattern di coltivazione per l’allocazione ottimale della risorsa idrica.

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EPrint type:Ph.D. thesis
Tutor:Boatto, Vasco
Supervisor:Bortolini, Lucia
Ph.D. course:Ciclo 23 > Scuole per il 23simo ciclo > TERRITORIO, AMBIENTE, RISORSE E SALUTE > ECONOMIA
Data di deposito della tesi:UNSPECIFIED
Anno di Pubblicazione:January 2011
Key Words:Integrated hydrologic-economi water management, climate change, system dynamics, optimal water allocation
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/01 Economia ed estimo rurale
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali
Codice ID:4063
Depositato il:21 Jul 2011 11:52
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