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Ziliani, Luca (2011) Ricostruzione e previsione dell'evoluzione morfologica di un alveo a fondo ghiaioso (f. Tagliamento): integrazione di modellazione numerica, analisi GIS e rilievi di terreno. [Ph.D. thesis]

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Abstract (english)

The study of channel adjustments and prediction of morphological channel evolution play a primary role in management and conservation river policies. Various techniques taken individually can reach a satisfactory degree of understanding of river morpho-dynamic, but an integrated approach is certainly desirable as it allows to develop a more robust knowledge of river processes and to make judgments with higher confidence levels.
In this research an effort has been undertaken to integrate and combine two approaches very different in terms of methodological and conceptual base: GIS-survey analysis, and numerical morphodynamics modelling. The case study has been a reach of the Tagliamento River (Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy) of about 49 km in length from the Pinzano gorge to San Mauro. This reach coincides roughly with the so-called Middle Tagliamento.
Through the application of GIS techniques, topographic and geomorphological surveys it was possible to reconstruct the morphological adjustments undergone by Tagliamento River channel over the last 200 years. The quantification of the human activies also helped to highlight the existing link causes-effects with the processes of narrowing and incision started during the first half of the twentieth century, grew in intensity until the 1990s and followed by a recent morphological recovery phase.
Numerical modelling was undertaken in order to support and complete the results of the historical analysis. Space-time scales involved by the historical analysis have led to choose a numerical model that can simulate long time periods on spatial contexts with dimensions similar to those of the study reach. The choice has fallen on a morphodynamic cellular model called CAESAR (Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River model), which fall into to the so-called Reduced Complexity Models group (RCM). This type of model necessarily required that a thorough sensitivity analysis was carried out before of model calibration and validation. Following validation the model was applied to estimate sediment budgets at reach scale and it was used in a "what-if scenarios" evaluation framework. It was thus possible to bring out the longitudinal variability of the average sediment transport yield, the strong influence of lateral erosion on the sediment transport dynamics and the lack of relevance on the planimetric trend of variation in sediment supply input on the upstream section of the reach.
Integration of numerical evaluations and classic analysis results allowed to isolate the human impact that induced the historical channel adjustments and also to make quantitatively and conceptually based assessments about the likely future morphological evolution of the Tagliamento River.

Abstract (italian)

Lo studio delle variazioni morfologiche e la previsione dell'evoluzione futura degli alvei fluviali rivestono un ruolo primario per la loro gestione e conservazione. Diverse tecniche applicate singolarmente conducono a una comprensione soddisfacente dello stato morfodinamico di un alveo fluviale, un approccio integrato è tuttavia auspicabile in quanto permette di sviluppare una conoscenza più robusta dei processi e permette di esprimere giudizi con livelli di confidenza più elevati.
In questo lavoro di ricerca è stato intrapreso lo sforzo di integrare e coniugare due approcci molto diversi dal punto di vista metodologico e concettuale, l'analisi GIS e di campo e la modellazione numerica morfodinamica. Il caso studio oggetto della ricerca è un tratto del fiume Tagliamento (Friuli Venezia Giulia) di circa 49 km impostato tra la stretta morfologica di Pinzano e la località  San Mauro, coincidente grossomodo con il cosiddetto Medio Tagliamento.
Attraverso l'applicazione di tecniche GIS, rilievi topografici e rilievi geomorfologici è stato possibile ricostruire con elevato dettaglio le variazioni manifestate negli ultimi 200 anni dall'alveo del fiume Tagliamento. La quantificazione degli impatti antropici ha permesso di evidenziare i legami diretti causa-effetto esistenti con i processi di restringimento ed incisione avviati durante la prima metà  del '900, cresciuti per intensità  fino agli anni '90 e seguiti da una recente fase di recupero morfologico.
Al fine di supportare e completare le valutazioni emerse da quest'analisi storica, è stata intrapresa una via d'indagine morfologica alternativa modellistico-numerica. Le scale spazio-temporali interessata dall'analisi GIS (Geographic Information System) e di campo hanno vincolato la scelta ad un modello in grado di simulare ampi periodi temporali per contesti con dimensioni assimilabili a quelle del tratto studio. La scelta è ricaduta su un modello morfodinamico a schema cellulare denominato CAESAR (Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River model), appartenente alla classe di modelli cosiddetti a "complessità  ridotta" (Reduced Complexity Models, RCM). La tipologia stessa del modello ha richiesto che fosse affrontata, in via preliminare alla sua calibrazione e validazione, un'approfondita analisi di sensitività . In seguito alla sua validazione il modello è stato applicato per un calcolo a scala di tratto del bilancio di sedimenti e per l'implementazione di una strategia "what-if scenarios". E' stato così possibile far emergere la significativa variabilità  longitudinale del trasporto al fondo effettivo medio annuo, l'influenza dell'attività  erosiva laterale sulla dinamica complessiva dei sedimenti e la scarsa rilevanza sulle tendenze evolutive planimetriche della variazione di apporto solido in ingresso al tratto studio.
L'integrazione delle valutazioni numeriche e di analisi classica ha permesso di isolare le cause antropiche alla base delle variazioni morfologiche storiche e di esprimere valutazioni quantitativamente e concettualmente più fondate sulla possibile evoluzione morfologica futura del fiume Tagliamento.

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EPrint type:Ph.D. thesis
Tutor:Surian, Nicola
Ph.D. course:Ciclo 23 > Scuole per il 23simo ciclo > SCIENZE STORICHE > UOMO E AMBIENTE
Data di deposito della tesi:28 July 2011
Anno di Pubblicazione:31 July 2011
Key Words:evoluzione morfologica, modellazione numerica, Tagliamento
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 04 - Scienze della terra > GEO/04 Geografia fisica e geomorfologia
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > pre 2012 - Dipartimento di Geografia "G. Morandini"
Codice ID:4269
Depositato il:21 Jun 2012 17:01
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