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Dal Bianco, Andrea (2013) I fattori determinanti dell'export di vino secondo il modello gravitazionale: un'applicazione alle principali destinazioni mondiali. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract (inglese)

International wine trade has gained a great importance during years, specially for our country, and there’s a raising interest in the study of its structure, functioning and the forces that govern it.
In this work international wine export has been studied with a gravity model - an econometrical model with an increasing importance and acceptance among scientist - for the explication of transactional phenomenal. The study concerned bilateral trade of twelve of the main wine markets, both importers and exporters, from 1997 until 2010, utilizing a proper panel data for still and sparkling wine.
According to previous works found in literature regarding gravity wines, in addition to the classical model estimation, it has been proposed an expanded model in order to obtain more accurate results. This expanded model include more variables than those traditionally included in literature (distance and GDP) like exchange rate and wine production of exporting country, language and trade barriers.
The hypothesis that lead to variables election is tied to them growing importance in the economic policy intervention at international level, in particular in the market regulation of good and inside the WTO. In practice, the aim was to evaluate if these variables have a great impact also in the case of wine market.
Results leads to believe that wine export are strongly conditioned by the income level of the importing country, while distance, even having a negative impact, doesn’t seem to have the same importance found in another goods. When countries have the same official language the model show a trade growth of more than twice, and also exporter exchange rate has a significant effect, with an increasing export when exporter currency devaluate.
In order to better evaluate the role of trade barriers, that has growing relevance for alimentary goods and especially for wine, tariff and non tariff barriers have been taken into account. In addition, non tariff barriers have been divided into technical barriers and sanitary – phytosanitary barriers. The study has highlighted how sparkling wine, despite having higher duties levels on average, is less affected to tariffs applied by importing country, and seem to have a behavior more similar to luxury goods ones.
Technical barriers seem to penalize mainly still bottled wine, while for sanitary and phytosanitary measures there isn’t any effect with statistical significance.
In the light of WTO negotiate, the study seems to validate the importance of reducing effects of tariff and technical barriers to trade, especially for still bottled wine

Abstract (italiano)

Il commercio internazionale del vino nel corso degli anni ha assunto un’importanza crescente, in particolare per il nostro Paese; vi è quindi un interesse crescente verso lo studio della sua struttura, funzionamento e delle forze che lo guidano.
Nell’ambito del presente lavoro, l’export mondiale del vino è stato studiato tramite un modello gravitazionale, un modello econometrico che si è proposto all’attenzione degli studiosi per la spiegazione dei fenomeni transativi. Lo studio ha riguardato il commercio bilaterale di dodici dei principali mercati del vino, sia importatori che esportatori, per il periodo 1997-2010, utilizzando un appropriato panel di dati sia per il vino tranquillo imbottigliato sia per il vino spumante.
Sulla base dei risultati degli studi precedenti, relativi all’utilizzo di questo modello, e riportati in letteratura, oltre alla stima del modello classico si è ritenuto di proporre alcune modifiche dello stesso, utili al raggiungimento di migliori risultati. Queste modifiche hanno riguardato l’inserimento di nuove variabili rispetto a quelle tradizionalmente considerate in letteratura quali la distanza e il prodotto interno lordo, che fanno riferimento al tasso di cambio del Paese esportatore e importatore, le rispettive produzioni di vino, la condivisione della stessa lingua parlata e le barriere al commercio. L’ipotesi che ha condotto a scegliere queste variabili è legata alla crescente importanza che queste assumono negli interventi di politica economica a livello internazionale, in particolare nella regolazione del mercato mondiale dei beni, e in sede WTO. In pratica, si è voluto verificare se anche nel caso del mercato del vino queste variabili hanno un ruolo importante come è emerso per altri prodotti.
I risultati portano a ritenere che le esportazioni di vino risentono particolarmente del livello del reddito del Paese importatore, mentre la distanza geografica, pur penalizzando gli scambi, non sembra avere la stessa rilevanza riscontrata in altri beni. La presenza della stessa lingua ufficiale ha mostrato aumentare il commercio di oltre due volte, ed anche per il tasso di cambio si è riscontrato un effetto significativo, con l’export che aumenta allo svalutarsi della moneta del Paese esportatore.
Per poter valutare al meglio il ruolo delle barriere al commercio, aspetto questo che assume una rilevanza crescente nel caso dei beni alimentari e in particolare per il vino, sono state considerate sia le barriere tariffarie che quelle non tariffarie. Queste ultime a loro volta sono state ripartite in barriere tecniche e sanitarie - fitosanitarie. Lo studio ha evidenziato che il vino spumante, nonostante sia soggetto a dazi mediamente più elevati, è meno sensibile alle tariffe applicate dal Paese importatore, e sembra accumunare questa categoria merceologica ai beni di lusso.
Le barriere tecniche sembrano generalmente penalizzare maggiormente il vino tranquillo, mentre per quelle sanitarie – fitosanitarie il modello non ha mostrato l’esistenza di un loro effetto significativo sull’export di vino.
Alla luce dei negoziati in corso nella sede dell’Organizzazione Mondiale del Commercio, lo studio sembra avvalorare l’importanza degli effetti riduttivi sul commercio delle barriere sia tariffarie che tecniche, soprattutto per il vino tranquillo

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Tipo di EPrint:Tesi di dottorato
Relatore:Boatto, Vasco
Dottorato (corsi e scuole):Ciclo 25 > Scuole 25 > TERRITORIO, AMBIENTE, RISORSE E SALUTE > ECONOMIA
Data di deposito della tesi:24 Gennaio 2013
Anno di Pubblicazione:24 Gennaio 2013
Informazioni aggiuntive:
Parole chiave (italiano / inglese):International trade, gravity model, non tariff barriers, tariff, technical barriers to trade, wine
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/01 Economia ed estimo rurale
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali
Centri > Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca Viticola Enologica (CIRVE)
Codice ID:5478
Depositato il:08 Ott 2013 15:58
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