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Zoccatelli, Davide (2013) A framework for the analysis of the influence of rainfall spatial organization and basin morphology on flood response. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract (inglese)

This work describes the derivation of a set of statistics, termed spatial moments of catchment rainfall, that quantify the dependence between rainfall spatial organization, basin morphology and runoff response. These statistics describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion along the flow distance coordinate. These statistics were derived starting from an analytical framework, and related with the statistical moments of the flood hydrograph. From spatial moments we also created an index quantifying catchment scale storm velocity. This index measures the overall movement of the rainfall system over the catchment, reflecting the filtering effect of its morphology. We also extended spatial moments to the hillslope system, developing a framework to evaluate the relevance of hillslope and channel propagation in the flood response to spatially variable rainfall fields. Data from six flash floods occurred in Europe between 2002 and 2007 are used to evaluate the information provided by the framework. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation, which is important for runoff modelling. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 2586 km2. The analysis reported here shows that spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. Rainfall distribution was observed to play an important role in catchments as small as 50 km2. The description timing error was further improved by the inclusion in the framework of hillslope propagation. This development allows to compare scenarios of hillslope conditions, to evaluate the sensitivity of single basins or the effect of catchment scale. The analysis of catchment scale storm velocity showed a nonlinear dependence with basin scale. The values of velocity observed were however rather moderate, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements, and did not play a relevant effect on the flood analyzed.

Abstract (italiano)

Questo lavoro presenta una serie di statistici, denominati "momenti spaziali di pioggia a scala di bacino", che permettono di quantificare la relazione tra l’organizzazione spaziale della pioggia, la morfologia del bacino e la forma dell’idrogramma di piena. Tali statistici descrivono la posizione e la dispersione della pioggia su un assegnato bacino idrografico. La trattazione include la derivazione di una serie di relazioni che consentono di stabilire un rapporto fra detti statistici di pioggia ed i momenti temporali dell’onda di piena. La formulazione complessiva del lavoro consente di isolare e quantificare l’effetto della variabilità spaziale della pioggia sulla struttura della risposta di piena, e di creare un indice di velocità del sistema di pioggia. Questo indice considera l'iterazione tra morfologia del bacino e spostamento della pioggia, quantificando l'influenza sull'idrogramma. I momenti spaziali stati poi ampliati alla propagazione su versante, sviluppando degli statistici per valutare l'importanza della propagazione di canale e di versante sulla risposta nella riposta di un bacino ad una pioggia distribuita. Dati relativi a sei eventi estremi di piena improvvisa verificatisi in diverse regioni Europee sono utilizzati per illustrare il significato degli statistici e le relazioni con la forma dell'idrogramma. Stime di pioggia da radar ed un modello idrologico distribuito sono utilizzati per valutare l'efficacia degli statistici nel cogliere l'organizzazione delle piogge che ha un'influenza sulla simulazione di piena. Lo studio mostra che i momenti spaziali di pioggia a scala di bacino possono essere efficaci nel cogliere questa organizzazione. Nelle piene improvvise analizzate la distribuzione della pioggia ha un effetto rilevante anche per bacini di circa 50 km2. La descrizione dell'errore temporale dell'idrogramma è ulteriormente migliorata dalla considerazione dell'effetto del versante. Questo sviluppo permette inoltre di confrontare condizioni di versante diverse, di valutare la suscettibilità di singoli bacini o l'effetto in relazione alla scala dei bacini. L'analisi della velocità di spostamento a scala di bacino mostra una relazione non lineare con le dimensioni del bacino. I valori di velocità osservati sono comunque moderati, nonostante la forte velocità di spostamento delle singole celle convettive, e non hanno avuto un ruolo rilevante nell'evento analizzato.

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Tipo di EPrint:Tesi di dottorato
Relatore:Borga, Marco
Dottorato (corsi e scuole):Ciclo 25 > Scuole 25 > TERRITORIO, AMBIENTE, RISORSE E SALUTE > IDRONOMIA AMBIENTALE
Data di deposito della tesi:28 Gennaio 2013
Anno di Pubblicazione:28 Gennaio 2013
Parole chiave (italiano / inglese):Flash Floods, Framework, Rainfall organization, Rainfall distribution
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 07 - Scienze agrarie e veterinarie > AGR/08 Idraulica agraria e sistemazioni idraulico-forestali
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali
Codice ID:5625
Depositato il:14 Ott 2013 13:51
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