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Guseo, Renato and Dalla Valle, Alessandra and Guidolin, Mariangela and Mortarino, Cinzia and Furlan, Claudia (2013) Emergence of a Pharmaceutical Drug as New Entrant in a Category: Ex Ante Diffusion of Innovation Modeling and Forecasting. [Working Paper] WORKING PAPER SERIES, 5/2013 . , PADOVA (Inedito)

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Abstract (english)

The emergence of a product, new entrant in a category, is a relevant issue in marketing strategy implementation. Usually, diffusion of innovation models analyze single products or services when they are active in the marketplace for a sufficient time interval as compared with related life cycles. If product sales data are available since the launch, robust inference and prediction for each item may be efficiently performed. More complex and risky is the prediction with no specific data for a new entrant. This paper analyzes the temporal sequence of observed life cycles in a category to assess and estimate ex ante the dynamics that characterize the launch time and the future features of a new entrant. A case study is examined: the introduction in Italy of a new pharmaceutical drug within the category of treatments for acid-related disorders based on the ranitidine.

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EPrint type:Working Paper
Anno di Pubblicazione:03 April 2013
Key Words:Ex ante modeling, Bass model, Generalized Bass model, Guseo–Guidolin model, Evolutionary behavior of a category, Prediction with no data, NLS.
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-S/01 Statistica
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche
Codice ID:7117
Depositato il:11 Sep 2014 15:18
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