Pauli, Francesco and Rizzi, Laura (2008) Analysis of heat waves effects on health using GAM and bootstrap based model selection. [Working Paper] WORKING PAPER SERIES, 1/2008 . , PADOVA (Inedito)
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It is known that high summer temperature may lead to worsening health conditions among fragile individuals within exposed populations. It is also argued that multi-day patterns of high temperature – heat waves – may have relevant effects on health. We will discuss the possible measures of heat waves intensity to be included in a generalized additive model explaining the number of hospital admissions occurred during summer months in Milano. The issue of variable selection is central to the analysis: a computational method is discussed which may help in assessing the robustness of model selection method. Eventually, we obtain evidence supporting the relevance of heat waves in driving adverse health episodes.
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