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Bordignon, Silvano and Gaetan, Carlo and Lisi, Francesco (2001) Nonlinear models for ground-level ozone forecasting. [Working Paper] WORKING PAPER SERIES, 11/2001 . , PADOVA (Inedito)

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Abstract (english)

One of the main concerns in air pollution is excessive tropospheric ozone concentration. The aim of this work is to develop statistical models giving short-term prediction of future ground-level ozone concentrations. Since there are few physical insights about the dynamic relationship between ozone, precursor emissions and/or meteorological factors, a nonparametric and nonlinear approach sems promising in order to specify the prediction models. First, we apply four nonparametric procedures to forecast daily maximum 1-hour and maximum 8-hours averages of ozone concentrations in an urban area. Then, in order to improve the prediction performances, we combine the time series of the forecasts. This idea seems to give promising results.

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EPrint type:Working Paper
Anno di Pubblicazione:May 2001
Key Words:Ground-level ozone forecasting, Nonlinear time-series models, Combination of forecasts.
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-S/01 Statistica
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche
Codice ID:7360
Depositato il:11 Dec 2014 14:50
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