Vai ai contenuti. | Spostati sulla navigazione | Spostati sulla ricerca | Vai al menu | Contatti | Accessibilità

| Crea un account

Colombo, Valentina (2015) Three Essays in Macroeconometrics. [Tesi di dottorato]

Full text disponibile come:

[img]
Anteprima
Documento PDF
6Mb

Abstract (inglese)

This dissertation comprises three self-contained chapters in macroeconometrics tackling three current macroeconomic issues.

The first chapter, “Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro Area", is a single-authored paper. It studies to what extent an economic policy uncertainty shock generated in the US triggers spillover effects in the Euro Area macroeconomic activity. I estimate a two-country Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model capturing the US economic policy uncertainty shock by appealing to some indicators recently proposed by Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013). The impulse responses predict a negative and statistically significant reaction of Euro area price and quantity indicators to an unexpected increase in the US policy uncertainty. The results support the view that the effects of such shock act like a demand "type" shock. Interestingly, the Euro area variables are estimated to respond strongly to US uncertainty shock than to the European counterpart. A note from this chapter has been published in the Economics Letters.

The second chapter, "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News from a non-linear Word", is a joint work with Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo and Gabriela Nodari. We estimate the effects of a US government spending news shock on output multipliers. We deal with the issue of fiscal foresight (anticipated fiscal policy changes) by appealing to the sums of revisions of expectations on future government spending. This measure is used to add more information to a standard three-variate fiscal VAR model à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002). To study the effects of anticipated fiscal policy shocks conditionally on the state of economy (in recessions and expansions), we estimate a non-linear VAR (Smooth Transition VAR). We compute non-linear generalized impulse responses (GIRFs) à la Koop, Pesaran, and Potter (1996) to take into account the probability of smoothly switching from a regime to another due to the fiscal shock. Results show that an anticipated fiscal spending shock triggers a significant reaction of GDP. Such reaction is not significantly different between recessions and expansions. However, when we discriminate between "extreme events" (i.e., the recent great recession), we find a reaction of output significantly different among regimes. Fiscal multipliers in recessions are estimated above one and government spending news shocks are found to induce economic stabilization. This chapter is forthcoming in the Economic Journal.

The third chapter, "Opening the Red Budget Box: Real Effects of a Tax Shock in the UK", is a single-authored paper. It studies non-linear impulse responses to unanticipated tax shocks for output and its components. To do so, I estimate a non-linear version of the local projection technique developed by Jordà (2005). The identification of the tax shock is achieved by appealing to the measure of exogenous tax changes in the UK developed by Cloyne (2013). Tax shocks are found to affect UK macroeconomic variables depending when such shocks occur (in recessions or in expansions). An unexpected increase in the tax rate occurring in recessions triggers a large, persistent and negative reaction in output, consumption, investment, imports and government consumption. The results suggest that output tax multipliers are negative and above one (in absolute value) in recessions but not in expansions.The size and the sign of multipliers for most of the macroeconomic indicators above considered are also found to be state-dependent.

Abstract (italiano)

Questa tesi di dottorato include tre saggi tra loro indipendenti che trattano tre temi macroeconomici attualmente molto dibattuti nel panorama internazionale.

Il primo capitolo, "Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro Area?", studia se uno shock d'incertezza relativa alla politica economica statunitense ha effetti sulle variabili macroeconomiche dell'Area Euro. Al fine di studiare gli effetti di contagio (spillover effects) di tale shock sull'Area Euro, si stima un modello autoregressivo vettoriale (SVAR) in cui lo shock d'incertezza statunitense è identificato con l'indicatore d’incertezza proposto recentemente da Baker, Bloom e Davis (2013). Le funzioni d’impulso mostrano che lo shock d'incertezza statunitense ha effetti negativi sugli aggregati macroeconomici dell'Area Euro. I risultati confermano l'idea condivisa dalla letteratura che uno shock d'incertezza genera effetti riconducibili ad uno shock di domanda. Un risultato interessante è che le variabili macroeconomiche dell'Area Euro rispondono più ad uno shock d'incertezza generato negli Stati Uniti che ad uno stesso shock generato all'interno della stessa Area Euro. Un estratto di esso è stato pubblicato sulla rivista internazionale Economics Letters.

Il secondo capitolo, "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News from a non-linear Word", è un saggio scritto con Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo and Gabriela Nodari. Nel saggio stimiamo gli effetti di uno shock anticipato della spesa pubblica statunitense. Lo shock è identificato à la Gambetti (2012) utilizzando la somma delle revisioni delle aspettative relative alla spesa pubblica. Questa misura permette di rendere più informativo il VAR trivariato proposto da Blanchard e Perotti (2002). Per studiare se gli effetti di tale shock dipendono dall'asimmetria del ciclo economico (recessione versus espansione), stimiamo un VAR non-lineare (STVAR). Le funzioni di risposta all’impulso generalizzate e non-lineari (Generalized impulse responses) sono costruite à la Koop, Pesaran, and Potter (1996). I risultati mostrano che tale shock ha un effetto positivo sul PIL statunitense. Tale reazione non è significativamente diversa in recessione e in espansione. Tuttavia, quando calcoliamo gli effetti di tale shock discriminando tra “eventi estremi”, ad esempio la recente recessione, troviamo una reazione del PIL che è significativamente differente durante le fasi del ciclo economico. I moltiplicatori fiscali in recessione sono positivi e maggiori di uno e lo shock ha effetti stabilizzanti sull'economia. Il secondo capitolo sarà pubblicato sulla rivista internazionale Economic Journal.

Il terzo capitolo, "Opening the Red Budget Box: Real Effects of a Tax Shock in the UK", studia la reazione non-lineare di un aumento delle tasse sul PIL britannico e le sue componenti (consumo, investimento, esportazioni, importazioni e spesa pubblica). A tal fine, si stima una versione non-lineare delle proiezioni locali proposte da Jord\'{a (2005). Lo shock è identificato attraverso la misura proposta da Cloyne (2013). Un aumento delle tasse ha effetti asimmetrici lungo il ciclo economico (recessione versus espansione). Un aumento delle tasse durante una fase recessiva ha effetti negativi sul PIL britannico e sulle sue componenti (consumo, investimento, importazioni e spesa pubblica). I moltiplicatori fiscali delle variabili economiche considerate sono anch'essi asimmetrici. [brace not closed]

Statistiche Download - Aggiungi a RefWorks
Tipo di EPrint:Tesi di dottorato
Relatore:Castelnuovo, Efrem
Dottorato (corsi e scuole):Ciclo 27 > scuole 27 > SCUOLA SUPERIORE DI ECONOMIA E MANAGEMENT (INTERATENEO)
Data di deposito della tesi:01 Febbraio 2015
Anno di Pubblicazione:2015
Parole chiave (italiano / inglese):SVAR, STVAR, fiscal shocks, uncertainty shocks
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-P/01 Economia politica
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Aziendali "Marco Fanno"
Codice ID:7892
Depositato il:17 Nov 2015 11:09
Simple Metadata
Full Metadata
EndNote Format

Bibliografia

I riferimenti della bibliografia possono essere cercati con Cerca la citazione di AIRE, copiando il titolo dell'articolo (o del libro) e la rivista (se presente) nei campi appositi di "Cerca la Citazione di AIRE".
Le url contenute in alcuni riferimenti sono raggiungibili cliccando sul link alla fine della citazione (Vai!) e tramite Google (Ricerca con Google). Il risultato dipende dalla formattazione della citazione.

Alesina, A., C. Favero, and F. Giavazzi (2013): The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations, Harvard University and Bocconi University, mimeo Cerca con Google

Alexopoulos, M., Cohen, J., (2009). Uncertain Times, Uncertain Measures. University of Toronto, Department of Economics Working Paper No. 325. Cerca con Google

Artis, M., Marcellino, M., and Proietti, T., (2002). Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle. EUI WP ECO 2002/24. (San Domenico, Italy) Cerca con Google

Auerbach, A., and Y. Gorodnichenko (2012): Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), 127. Cerca con Google

Auerbach, A. J., Gorodnichenko, Y., (2013a). Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion. In: Alesina, A., and Giavazzi, F., (Eds.), Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, Chicago, University of Chicago Press Cerca con Google

Auerbach, A. J., Gorodnichenko, Y., (2013b). Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy. American Economic Review, 103(3):141-46 Cerca con Google

Auerbach, A. J., Gorodnichenko, Y., (2014). Fiscal Multiplier in Japan. NBER WP 19911 Cerca con Google

Bachmann, R., and E. Sims, (2012): Confidence and transmission of government spending shocks, Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, 235-249 Cerca con Google

Bank of England, 2014. Inflation Report. February 2014 Cerca con Google

Barro, R. J., Redlick, C. J., (2011). Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases And Taxes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126 (1): 51-102 Cerca con Google

Baker, S., Bloom, N., Davis, S., (2013). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Stanford University and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Blanchard, O., Perotti, R., (2002). An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(4): 1329-1368 Cerca con Google

Baum, A., Poplawski-Ribeiro, M., and Weber, A., (2012). Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy. IMP WP/12/286 Cerca con Google

Beaudry, P., and F. Portier (2013): News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges, NBER WP No. 19411. Cerca con Google

Bénassy-Quéré, A., Cimadomo, J., (2012). Changing Patterns of Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Germany, the U.K. and the U.S., Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(3):845-873 Cerca con Google

Berger, D., and J. Vavra (2014): Measuring How Fiscal Shocks Affect Durable Spending in Recessions and Expansins, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 104(5), 112-115. Cerca con Google

Blanchard, O., Perotti, R., (2002). An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(4): 1329-1368 Cerca con Google

Blanchard, O., Leigh, D., (2013). Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers. American Economic Review, 103(3):117-20 Cerca con Google

Bloom, N., (2009). The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), pp. 623-685. Cerca con Google

Bry, G., Boschan, C., (1971). Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs. National Bureau of Economic Research, New York Cerca con Google

Caggiano, G., E., Castelnuovo, and N. Groshenny (2014): Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics: An Analysis of Post-WWII U.S. Recessions, Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, 78-92. Cerca con Google

Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., Colombo, V., and Nodari., G., (2014). Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From a Nonlinear World. Economic Journal, forthcoming Cerca con Google

Caldara, D., and Kamps, C., (2008). What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? ECB WP 0877/ March 2008 Cerca con Google

Caldara, D., and C. Kamps (2012): The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Bord of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Cerca con Google

Canova, F., (1998). Detrending and Business Cycle Facts. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(3): 475-512 Cerca con Google

Canova, F., and E. Pappa (2011): Fiscal policy, pricing frictions and monetary accomodation, Economic Policy, 26(68), 555-598. Cerca con Google

Cantore, C., Levine, G. Melina, and J. Pearlman (2013): Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Rules in Normal and Abnormal Times, University of Surrey Discussion Paper No.05/13 Cerca con Google

Canzoneri, M., F. Collard, H. Dellsa, and B. Diba (2011): Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions, Georgetown University and University of Bern, mimeo Cerca con Google

Chernozhukov, V., and H. Hong (2003): an MCMC Approach to Classical Estimation, Journal of Econometrics, 115(2), 293-346. Cerca con Google

Christiano, L. J., M. Eichenbaum, and S. Rebelo (2011): When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?, Journal of Political Economy, 119(1), 78-121. Cerca con Google

Corsetti, G., A. Meier, and G. J. Muller (2012): What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?, Economic Policy, 27(72), 521-565. Cerca con Google

Cloyne, J., (2013). Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom. American Economic Review, 103(4): 1507-28 Cerca con Google

Cooley, T. F., Prescott, E.C., (1995). Economic growth and business cycle. In: Cooley, T.F., Prescott, E.C. (Eds.), Frontiers of the Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1-38 Cerca con Google

Devries, P., Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., and Pescatori, A., (2011). A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation. IMF WP/11/128. Cerca con Google

Eggertsson, G. B. (2009): What Fiscal Policy is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?, Federal Reserve Bank of New York State Reports No. 402. Cerca con Google

Ehrmann, M., M. Ellison, and N. Valla (2003): Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model, Economics Letters, 78(3), 295-299. Cerca con Google

Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., (2009). Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(6), pp. 739-759. Cerca con Google

Favero, C. A., Giavazzi F., (2008). Should the Euro Area Be Run as a Closed Economy?. American Economic Review, 98(2), pp. 138-145. Cerca con Google

Favero, C., Giavazzi, F., 2012. Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2):69-94 Cerca con Google

Fazzari, S. M., J. Morley, and I. Panovska (2014): State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal policy, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, forthcoming. Cerca con Google

Fernandez-Villaverde, J., G. Gordon, P. Guerron-Quintana, and J. F. Rubio-Ramirez (2012): Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound, NBER WP No. 18058 Cerca con Google

Fisher, J. D. M., and R. Peters (2010): Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks, Economic Journal, 120, 414-436. Cerca con Google

Forni, M., L. Gambetti (2011): Fiscal Foresight and the Effects of Government Spending, Universit\'a di Modena e Reggio Emilia and Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Forni, M., L. Gambetti (2014): Sufficient information in structural VARs, Journal of Monetary Economics, 66, 124-136 Cerca con Google

Forni, M., L. Gambetti, M. Lippi, and L. Sala (2013): Noisy News in Business Cycles, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Fortune, P. (1996): Do Municipal Bonds Yields Forecast Tax Policy?, New England Economic Review, September/October, 29-48. Cerca con Google

Francis, N., Ramey, V. A., (2009). Measures of per capita hours and their implications for the technology-hours debate. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(6):1071-1097 Cerca con Google

Gambetti, L. (2012a): Fiscal Foresight, Forecast Revisions and Effects of Government Spending in the Open Economy, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Gambetti, L. (2012b): Government Spending News and Shocks, Government Spending News and Shocks, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Giorno, C., Richardson, P., Roseveare, D., and van den Noord, P., (1995). Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances, OECD Economic Studies, No. 24, Paris. Cerca con Google

Granger, C. W. J., Teräsvirta, T., (1994). Modelling Nonlinear Economic Relationships."International Journal of Forecasting, 10(1):169-171 Cerca con Google

Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., and Pescatori, A., (2011). Expansionary Austerity: New International Evidence. IMF WP/11/158 Cerca con Google

Hall, R. E., (2009). By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, Brookings Institution, 40(2 ):183-249 Cerca con Google

Hansen, B. E., (1999). "Testing for Linearity. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(5), 551-576. Cerca con Google

Harding, D., Pagan, A.R., (2002). "Dissecting the Cycle: A methodological Investigating. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 365-381. Cerca con Google

Hayo, B., Uhl, M., (2014). The Macroeconomic Effects of Legislated Tax Changes in Germany. Oxford Economic Papers 66(2): 397–418 Cerca con Google

HM Treasury, (2003). Fiscal Stabilisation and EMU, discussion paper (London). Cerca con Google

Hall, R. E., (2009). By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, Brookings Institution, 40(2 ):183-249 Cerca con Google

Hamilton, J. D., (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle, Econometrica, 57(2): 357–84. Cerca con Google

Hansen, B. E. (1999): Testing for Linearity, Journal of economics Surveys, 13(5), 551-576. Cerca con Google

Hansen, L.P., and T.J.Sargent (1991): Two Difficulties in Intepreting Vector Autoregressions, in L.P. Hansen and T.J. Sargents (Eds.): Rtional Expectations Econometrics, Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 77119. Cerca con Google

Harding, D., Pagan, A.R., (2002). Dissecting the Cycle: A methodological Investigating. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 365-381. Cerca con Google

Harding, D., (2003). Essay on the Business Cycle. PhD Thesis Yale University Cerca con Google

Harding, D., (2008). Detecting and Forecasting Business Cycle Points. MPRA 33583 Cerca con Google

Ilzetzki, E., E. G. Mendoza, and C.A. Vegh (2013): How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?, Journal of Monetary Economics, 60, 239-254 Cerca con Google

Jordà, O., (2005). Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections. American Economic Review, 95(1): 161-182 Cerca con Google

Kilian, L., (1998). Small-sample Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(2), pp. 218-230. Cerca con Google

Kim, S., (2001). International Transmission of US Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from VARs. Journal of Monetary Economics, 48(2), pp. 339-372. Cerca con Google

Koop, G., M. Pesaran, and S. Potter (1996): Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models, Journal of Econometrics, 74, 119-147. Cerca con Google

Kriwoluzky, A. (2012): Pre.announcement and Timing: The Effects of a Government Expenditure Shock, European Economic Review, 56, 373-388. Cerca con Google

Kueng, L. (2014): Tax News: Identifying Tax Expectations from Municipal Bonds with an Application to Household Consumtion, NBER WP No. 20437. Cerca con Google

Leduc, S., Wilson, D., (2012). "Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment." Mimeo Cerca con Google

Leluc, S., Liu, Z., (2013). Uncertainty shocks are Aggregate Demand Shock. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper No. 2012-10. Cerca con Google

Leeper, E. M., A. W. Richter, and T. B. Walker (2012): Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), 115-144. Cerca con Google

Leeper, E.M., N. Traum, and T.B. Walker (2011): Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass, NBER WP No. 17444. Cerca con Google

Leeper, E.M., N. Traum, and T.B. Walker, and S.-C. S. Yang (2013): Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows, Econometrica, 81(3), 1115-1145. Cerca con Google

Lukkonen, R., Saikkonen, P., and Teräsvirta, T., (1988). Testing linearity against Smooth Transition Autoregressive models. Biometrika, 75:491-499 Cerca con Google

Mertens, K., Ravn, M.O., (2013). A reconsiliation of SVAR and the Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers. Journal of Monetary Economics, Forthcoming Cerca con Google

Mertens, K., and O. Ravn (2010): Measuring the impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach, Economic Journal, 120, 393-413 Cerca con Google

Mertens, K., and O. Ravn (2011): Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks, Review of Economic Dynamics, 14(1), 27-54 Cerca con Google

Mertens, K., and O. Ravn (2014): Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap, Review of Economic Studies, Forthcoming. Cerca con Google

Michaillat, P. (2014): A Theory of Countercyclical Government Multiplier, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6(1), 190-217. Cerca con Google

Mittnik, S., and W. Semmler (2012): Regime Dependence of the Fiscal Multiplier, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 83, 502-522. Cerca con Google

Mountford, A., Uhlig, H., (2009). What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24(6):960:92 Cerca con Google

Mumtaz, H., Theodoridis, K., 2012. The International Transmission of Volatility Shocks: An empirical analysis. Bank of England Working Paper No.463. Cerca con Google

Owyang, M.T., Ramey, V.A., and Zubairy, S., (2013). Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data. NBER WP No. 18769 Cerca con Google

Parker, J. A. (2011): On Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Recessions, Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), 703-718. Cerca con Google

Pereira, M. C., Wemans, L. Output effects of a measure of tax shocks based on changes in legislation for Portugal. Banco de Portugal WP 15/2013 Cerca con Google

Perotti, R. (1999): Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 144(4), 1399-1436. Cerca con Google

Perotti, R. (2007): In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy, in D. Acemogly, K. Rogoff, and M. Woodford (eds): NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 22, 169-226. Cerca con Google

Perotti, R. (2011): Expectations and Fiscal Policy: An Empirical Investigation, Bocconi University, mimeo Perotti, R., 2005. “Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries." CEPR Discussion Paper 4842 Cerca con Google

Perotti, R., (2012). The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2):214-237. Cerca con Google

Poterba, J. M. (1989): Tax Reform and the Market for Tax-Exempt Debt, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19(3), 537-562. Cerca con Google

Politis D., Romano J., (1992). A circular block resampling procedure for stationary data. In: LePage R., Billiard L. (Eds.), Exploring the limits of bootstrap, Wiley and Sons, New York, 263-270 Cerca con Google

Perotti, R., (2005). Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries. CEPR Discussion Paper 4842 Cerca con Google

Perotti, R., (2012). The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2):214-237 Cerca con Google

Ramey, V. A. (2011a): Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?, Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), 673-685. Cerca con Google

Ramey, V. A. (2011b). Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, 126(1): 1-50. Cerca con Google

Ramey, V. A., Shapiro, M.D., (1998). Costly capital reallocation and the Effects of government spending. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, North-Holland No.463, 48:145-194 Cerca con Google

Ramey, V. A., and S. Zubairy (2014): Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data, University of California at San Diego and Texa A\&M University, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Ricco, G. (2014): A New Identification of Fiscal Shocks Based on the Information Flow, London Business School, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Rossi, B., and S. Zubairy (2011): What is the Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks in Explaining U.S. Macroeconomic Fluctation?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(6), 1247-1270. Cerca con Google

Roulleau-Pasdeloup, J. (2014): The Government Spending Multiplier in a Recession with a Binding Zero Lower Bound, University of Lausanne, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Romer, C. D., Romer., D. H., (2010). The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 100, pp. 763-801 Cerca con Google

Schmitt-Grohe, S., and M. Uribe (2012): Whats News in Business Cycles, Econometrica, 80(6), 2733-2764. Cerca con Google

Sims, C., Stock , J., Watson, M., (1990). Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots. Econometrica, 58(1), pp. 113-144. Cerca con Google

Stock, J., Watson, M., (1999). Business Cycle Fluctuations in US Macroeconomic Time Series. In: Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1. Ed. by J.B. Taylor and M. Woodford. Elsevier Science B.V. Cerca con Google

Stock, J., Watson, M., (2010). Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceeding, 100 (May 2010):16-19 Cerca con Google

Tagkalakis, A., (2008). The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption in Recessions and Expansions, Journal of Public Economics, 92: 1486-1508. Cerca con Google

Terasvirta, T., D. Tjostheim, and C. W. Granger (2010): Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series, Oxford University Press. Cerca con Google

Teräsvirta, T., and Y. Yang (2013): Specification, Estimation and Evaluation of Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models with Applications, CREATES, Aarhus University, mimeo. Cerca con Google

Teräsvirta, T., (1998). Modelling Economi Relationships with Smooth Transition Regressions. In: Giles, D., Ullah, A., C. (Eds.), (Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics), Dekker Cerca con Google

Zeev, N. B., Pappa, E., (2014). The Effects of Fiscal Shocks on Measured TFP. Mimeo Cerca con Google

van den Noord, P., (2002). Automatic Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond." In: Buti, M., von Hagen, J., Martinez-Mongay, C. (Eds.), (The Behavior of Fiscal Authorities: Stabilization, Growth and Institutions), Palgrave Cerca con Google

Woodford, M. (2011): Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(1), 135. Cerca con Google

Yang, S.-C. S. (2005): Quantifying Tax Effects Under Policy Foresight, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(8), 1557-1568. Cerca con Google

Download statistics

Solo per lo Staff dell Archivio: Modifica questo record