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Furlan, Claudia and Mortarino, Cinzia (2011) Pleural Mesothelioma: forecasts of the death toll in the area of Casale Monferrato, Italy. [Working Paper] WORKING PAPER SERIES, 5/2011 . , PADOVA

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Abstract (english)

In the city of Casale Monferrato, the largest Italian factory that produced asbestos cement goods was active from 1907 to 1985. As a consequence, asbestos fibers scattered in the surrounding area and caused an enormous number of pleural mesotheliomas. Due to the very long latency of this disease, many subjects have not exhibited its symptoms yet. The aim of this paper is to model and predict the future evolution of the number of deaths due to this disease among residents in the area around that city. The model used here is based on a Cellular Automata that is assumed to pass through three steps: exposure, contamination, diagnosis. In that way, forecasts of the future evolution take into account the environmental conditions that changed in time during the last century because of different levels in plant activity. The model is fitted to annual diagnosis data starting from 1954 to 2009. Results show that deaths will not end until 2033, and that in the next two decades, at least 479 more subjects will be diagnosed with this disease.


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EPrint type:Working Paper
Anno di Pubblicazione:2011
More information:Pubblicato anche su: Statistics in Medicine, Volume 31, Issue 29, 20 December 2012, Pages: 4114–4134, doi: 10.1002/sim.5523
Key Words:Asbestos, Cellular automata, Environmental exposure, Pleural mesothelioma, Death toll, Cancer registries
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-S/01 Statistica
Struttura di riferimento:Dipartimenti > Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche
Codice ID:8826
Depositato il:09 Jun 2015 17:45
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